Ia dilakukan dengan membuat pelaburan dalam satu jumlah yang tetap setiap bulan atau setiap penggal kedalam mana mana unit saham amanah tunggal, tanpa menghiraukan harga unitnya.  Contohnya, anda boleh memilih untuk membuat pembelian saham bulanan sebanyak RM 100 atau RM 200 kepada satu dana unit amanah saham.  Atau mungkin juga anda membuat pembelian yang besar sedikit sebagai contoh RM 500 atau RM 1000 setiap penggal atau suku tahun.

Lebih banyak unit dibeli apabila harga unit sesaham rendah dan unit kurang dibeli jika harga unit sesaham tinggi.

Premis Pemurataan Kos Ringgit (DCA-Dalam Inggerisnya) adalah bagi seseorang pelabur yang ingin mencari perlindungan daripada kehilangan nilai pasaran tidak lama selepas dia membuat pelaburan.  Walaupun Pemurataan Kos Ringgit boleh menjadi satu cara pelaburan efektif, ia tidak menjaminkan keuntungan ataupun melindungi pelaburan daripada kerugian  dalam pasaran yang merosot pada masa sesingkat musim pelaburan menurun.  Untuk pelaburan jangka panjang, ia sesuatu yang masih lebih baik lagi.

Untuk itu anda mesti terus membeli unit unit dalam pasaran pasaran menaik dan menurun supaya strategi ini menjadi berkesan.  Oleh itu, anda patut memilih satu jumlah yang anda berasa selesa untuk melabur di bawah semua keadaan pasaran.

Untuk menjelaskan lagi Pemurataan Kos Ringgit  dengfan lebih baik, andaikan anda ingin menyimpan RM 12000 setiap tahun untuk tabung pendidikan anak anda.  Selain daripada melaburkannya sekaligus dan menanggung risiko memasuki semasa apasaran adalah tinggi, anda memutuskan untuk melabur RM 1000 setiap bulan dalam satu unit amanah saham seperti yang ditunjukkan jadual di bawah.

Dalam contoh ini, purata harga seunit saham sepoanjang tempoh itu adalah RM 0.1983 tetapi purata kos seunit anda adalah RM 0.1923, iaitu 3% kurang daripada purata harga seunit di sepanjang tempoh.

Untuk Bahagian Pertama ini saya akan menerangkan konsep yang dikenali sebagai Asset Allocation.  Sebenarnya terdapat pelbagai cara yang boleh digunakan untuk mengurangkan risiko, tetapi saya akan hanya menerangkan apa yang terbaik Fund Manager atau pelabur sendiri (sudah tentu dengan nasihat Perunding Unit Trust) boleh lakukan untuk mengurangkan risiko pelaburan.

Asset Allocation bermaksud membahagikan wang untuk belian beberapa jenis pelaburan dan juga portfolio pelaburan dan boleh juga keada beberaa buah negara.

Sebagai contoh, dalam pelaburan dana Public Islamic Equity Fund, Fund Manager akan menetapkan sekurang kurangnya 80% dana kepada pasaran ekuati dan selebihnya pada saham sukuk dan juga asset cair yang dibenarkan shariah. Dalam saham amanah atau Unit trust ini dipanggil ‘Fund Exposure’ kepada jenis pelaburan.

Fund Manager juga akan membuat pelaburan bukan kepada satu atau dua portfolio saham,tetapi akan membuat pelaburan kepada banyak portfolio supaya risiko pelaburan menjadi lebih kecil.  Ini kerana, prestasi sesuatu syarikat itu berbeza dan kebiasaannya untung rugi akan menjadi pukul rata.  Di bawah adalah contoh portfolio bagi Public Islamic Equity Fund (PIEF)berbanding Nilai Aset Bersih (Net Asset Value)

Nama Sekuriti (portfolio)                                 % NAV

IOI Corporation Bhd                                                        5

Tenaga Nasional Bhd                                                        5

Sime Darby Bhd                                                                  4

MISC Bhd                                                                               4

China Mobile Limited                                                       4

Saya tidak silap meletakkan China Mobile Limited kepada senarai portfolio kerana kepelbagaian urusniaga negara juga boleh dijadikan modal untuk Asset Allocation.  Sebagai contah dana PIEF ini Fund Exposure untuk Asset Allaocation seperti gambarajah di bawah

Memandangkan prestasi bursa sesebuah negara maka Asset Allacation boleh dijadikan kaedah untuk mengurangkan risiko pelaburan kerana untung rugi akan dipukul rata untuk kesemua pelaburan.

Ini adalah kaedah kaedah yang biasa dilakukan oleh Fund Manager.  Sebagai pelabur, anda juga boleh membuat Asset Allocation sendiri.  Hubungi saya, Nor Razi di 019 325 6161 atau email saya di norrazi.publicmutual@gmail.com untuk mengatahui cara bagaimana anda sendiri boleh membuat Asset Allacation anda sendiri.  Dengan cara ini, anda akan membuat 2 kali Asset Allocation dan bermakna dua kali pengurangan risiko pelaburan anda.

Selepas ini saya akan terangkan konsep Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) atau lebih sesuai untuk negara kita, kita sebut sebagai Ringgit Cost Averaging (RCA)

This shows up a fundamental difference between conventional and Islamic finance — making money from money versus making money work. The ongoing financial and economic crisis ought to be regarded as an opportunity to reset the way things work. What the crisis has amply demonstrated is that the conventional financial sector has become too far removed from the real economy. Islamic finance has a sound general practice: In making an investment, don’t consider only asset prices. Focus on the business proposition and the people who will do it.

In the face of a rapidly shrinking world trade, the US Senate did right this week by voting to soften a controversial “Buy American” clause in a US$800 billion economic recovery package, after warnings it could spark a trade war. The clause had sought to ensure that only US iron, steel and manufactured goods are used in projects funded by the bill. The climb-down followed warnings from the European Union and Canada that the stimulus bill could trigger protectionism. The White House has said it supports giving preference to domestic manufacturers in public works programs but only if this does not violate existing trade agreements.

The message that emerges is: “Let’s get real.” It’s the real world’s economy and financial sector that are in trouble. Measures to alleviate the situation should therefore focus on what’s happening on the ground. Credit is Latin for trust and confidence. Those in the financial sector should keep this in mind. After all, in banking, reputation is everything.

With the Bank of England widely expected to reduce UK interest rates to 1% from the current 1.5%, it appears that the major developed countries are trending toward a zero interest rate regime, as is being practiced by not only Islamic finance but also by the Bank of Japan. It has been reported that scrapping interest rates is gaining widespread appeal. Mohammad Aamir’s study may have been truly worthwhile.

PLAN WELL, RETIRE WEALTHY

Regional markets continued to retreat in 4Q2008 on concerns that a slowdown in major developed economies will dampen the region’s export performance. In North Asia, the South Korean and Japanese market fell by 22.3% and 21.3% respectively in 4Q2008. In South East Asia, the Philippines and Indonesia markets fell by 27.1% and 26% respectively in 4Q2008.

On Wall Street, the Dow fell to a 5-year low of 7,882.5 points on 10th October 2008 despite a coordinated effort by the U.S. Federal Reserve and five other major central banks to reduce interest rates on 8th October 2008. The Dow retreated further to a 5½-year low of 7,449.4 points in late November on concerns over the future of the U.S. auto industry. The Dow subsequently rebounded to touch a 4-week high of 9,026.4 points on 8th December 2008 on expectations of a possible US$14 billion bailout package for the U.S. automotive sector. However, the U.S. Senate’s initial rejection of the bailout plan and weak housing market data caused the Dow to retreat towards the end of the quarter. The Dow closed the quarter at 8,776 points to register a loss of 19.1% while the Nasdaq fell by 24.6% to close at 1,577 points over the same period.

Economic Review

Malaysia’s GDP growth moderated to 4.7% in 3Q2008 from 6.7% in 2Q2008 due to a sharp contraction in net exports of 14.8% compared to an increase of 20% in the previous quarter. However, consumer spending growth remained resilient at 8.1% in 3Q2008 compared to 9% in 2Q2008.

On the supply side, growth of the services sector eased to 7.1% in 3Q2008 compared to 8.2% in 2Q2008 while the manufacturing sector’s growth slowed to 1.8% from 5.6% over the same period due mainly to weaker exports. The agriculture sector’s growth slowed to 3% in 3Q2008 from 6% in 2Q2006 following lower palm oil output. The mining sector declined by 0.3% in 3Q2008 after contracting by 0.5% in 2Q2008 amidst lower natural gas output while the construction sector’s growth slowed to 1.2% from 3.9% over the same period, amidst higher costs of building materials.

Malaysia’s exports contracted by 2.6% in October compared to a growth of 15% in September due to lower electrical & electronic products and commodity exports. Meanwhile, imports declined by 5.3% following an increase of 11.4% over the same period. As export growth outpaced import growth, the cumulative trade surplus for the first ten months of 2008 rose by 47.6% to RM118.8bil compared to the same period last year.

The inflation rate eased to a 6-month low of 5.7% in November from 7.6% in October due to lower transportation and food costs. In line with the policy to adjust domestic fuel prices according to prevailing global oil prices, the Malaysian government lowered petrol and diesel prices by 5% and 6% to RM1.80 per litre and RM1.70 per litre respectively effective from 16th December 2008. Following the retracement in global oil prices since July 2008, domestic petrol and diesel prices have now fallen to levels prior to the price increase in June 2008.

On the international front, U.S. GDP contracted by 0.5% in 3Q2008 following 2.8% growth in 2Q2008 due to a contraction in consumer spending and weaker exports. For the first nine months of 2008, GDP growth eased to 1.8% from 2% registered for the whole of 2007 on slower consumer and investment spending.

The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced the Federal funds rate by a total of 175 basis points in 4Q2008 to 0.25% to mitigate the economic impact of the weaker house prices and tight credit conditions. The government’s rescue plan under the US$700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was originally intended to buy troubled mortgage-backed assets but was subsequently revised to recapitalise banks and other financial institutions.

On 25 November 2008, the Federal Reserve took further steps to stabilize the financial system with its plan to purchase up to US$600 billion in mortgage-backed assets from mortgage institutions, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to lower long-term interest rates and increase credit availability for home purchases. These two mortgage institutions guarantee more than half of all mortgages in the U.S. In addition, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department will jointly provide a new US$200 billion credit facility for financial institutions to provide commercial lending on securitized loans such as auto loans, credit card loans, student loans and small business loans.

The number of U.S. non-farm job losses increased to a 35-year high of 533,000 jobs lost in November from 320,000 jobs lost in October due to higher unemployment in the services and construction sectors. The unemployment rate rose to a 15-year high of 6.7% in November from 6.5% in October.

Crude oil prices from US$100.64/brl at the beginning of the 4Q2008 to a 5-year low of US$31.41/brl on 22nd December 2008 on expectations that slower global economic growth will reduce fuel demand. Oil prices subsequently rebounded due to renewed political tension in the Middle East to close at US$44.6/brl to register a decline of 55.7% for the quarter.

Stockmarket Outlook

In 4Q2008, the KLCI fell by 13.9% and has outperformed most regional markets over the same period. For the full year’s performance in 2008, the KLCI registered a loss of 39.3% and has broadly outperformed regional markets, which sustained losses of more than 40% over the same period.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is ready to take fresh measures to ease credit markets and lower interest rates on agency and mortgage-backed securities by buying these securities from financial institutions. However, investors remain concerned over the impact of declining inflation rates on global financial assets as economic activities continue to decelerate in 4Q2008 and into 1H2009.

Nonetheless, the medium-term prospects for regional markets are supported by below trend valuations, high level of domestic savings, easing inflationary pressures as well as expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. If investors’ risk appetite normalises with the U.S. dollar resuming its secular weakness against regional currencies, demand for selected emerging market assets may strengthen, leading to a more stable trading environment for regional markets over the medium-to-long term.

On the local front, the declining trend in inflationary pressures will allow the central bank greater flexibility in reducing the overnight policy rate further in early 2009. Coupled with the roll-out of infrastructure spending under the RM7bil stimulus package, these counter cyclical policies are expected to support domestic consumer spending and investment in the year ahead.

On the domestic front, Malaysia’s equity market is currently trading at a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.4x for 2009 earnings, which is a discount of 26.6% to the 8-year average P/E ratio of 16.9x. The local market is also supported by a gross dividend yield of 6.2%, which exceeds the previous historical high of 6% registered in August 1998 following the Asian financial crisis.

Bond Market Review & Outlook

For the quarter ended 31st December 2008, the U.S. Treasury market strengthened amidst ongoing risk aversion and a series of reductions in the Federal funds rate by a total of 175 basis points to 0.25% in 4Q2008. The 3, 5 and 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields fell by between 79 basis points (bps) and 161 bps to 0.97%, 1.55% and 2.21% respectively over the quarter.

Sentiment on the U.S. Treasury bond market is expected to be supported by easing inflationary pressures in 1H2009 and sustained demand for safe haven assets amidst the ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activities.

Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) strengthened in 4Q2008 following Bank Negara’s decision to reduce the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 3.25% on 24th November. Sentiment in the local bond market was also supported expectations of further reductions in the overnight policy rate in 1Q2009 amidst easing inflationary pressures. The 3, 5 and 10-year MGS yields fell by between 98 bps and 140 bps to 2.89%, 2.96% and 3.17% respectively.

The local corporate bond market remained stable amidst thin trading activities. The 3-year AAA corporate bond yield rose by 6 bps respectively over the quarter. However, yields on the 5 and 10-year AAA corporate bonds remained unchanged at 4.57% and 5.95% respectively over 4Q2008.

In the money market, the spread of the 3-month KLIBOR over the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill rate widened to 330 bps over the quarter from 279 bps at the end of September 2008. The yield on the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill fell by 83 bps to 0.07% over the quarter due to safe haven buying amidst uncertainties in global financial markets.

On the domestic front, the MGS market is expected to be supported by demand for safer fixed income securities. In addition, the central bank may lower interest rates further in early 2009 given the continued easing trend in the domestic inflation rate.

Over the long term, the local bond market is projected to be underpinned by resilient demand for quality corporate bonds and sustained liquidity in the domestic economy.

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